2 posts / 0 new
Last post
Ian H
Ian H's picture
BBC Crime Calculator story

Iain just posted a story on Facebook from the BBC about a crime calculator ... http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41178903

I tried the calculator, but it only works if you live in the UK, so it couldn't tell me my likelihood of being attacked.  But there was a news story attached, and one comment there stood out to me:

The people with the highest risk of being a victim - the young - were less likely to be worried than older generations, even though the older you become, the safer things generally become.

The reported noted that "the young" were both less likely to be worried about being attacked, and more likely to be attacked.  The way it's phrased ... and the use of "even though" in particular ... makes it appear that as far as the reporter is concerned this is just a funny coincidence ... look at those silly old people being overly-concerned over nothing, when it's the young'uns who ought to be concerned. 

I'd say he missed the point ... the causal connectiuon on both ends of the age question.  Because the young don't fear being attacked, their guard is down and they allow themselves to end up in situations where they are more likely to be attacked.  Because the old have a healthy fear of dangerous situations and locations, they avoid them and are therefore less likely to be attacked.  

(And yes, that's just part of the equation ... the young also tend to find interest in those locations where violence is more likely.  Who's going to be standing outside a nightclub at 2am?  The young dude, not the old dude ... he's at home and in bed with the wife and kids.)

Iain Abernethy
Iain Abernethy's picture

Ian H wrote:
(And yes, that's just part of the equation ... the young also tend to find interest in those locations where violence is more likely.  Who's going to be standing outside a nightclub at 2am?  The young dude, not the old dude ... he's at home and in bed with the wife and kids.)

I think that is the key component. When you look at the UK stats, the older you are, the less likely you are to be a victim of violent crime. A huge chunk of violent crime is drunk young males assaulting other drunk young males. While experience does tend to make one more cautious and aware of risks, the differences in lifestyle between the young and old will make a much greater difference. As I once remarked at a seminar in Ireland, “It rarely kicks off at bingo”, to which I was told, “You’ve not seen bingo in Ireland” ;-)

All the best,

Iain